A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
